Outlook for Energy | ExxonMobil

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil’s latest view of energy demand and supply through 2050.

We base the Outlook on current trends in technology, government policies, consumer preferences, world politics, and economic development. We use it to develop long-term business strategies, investment plans, and research programs.

Key insight: 1

Energy and human development are tightly linked, with energy demand up 15% to support rising human development in developing world

Access to affordable and reliable energy has enabled billions of people to live longer, healthier lives. Yet many more can’t count on having clean cooking fuel or electricity, especially in developing countries which represent more than 80% of the world’s people. As they gain access to energy and improve their living standards, they will create the largest expansion of the global middle class in history. That means more demand for energy to power homes, transportation, and consumer goods.

Key insight: 2

Industrial sector produces society’s goods and infrastructure, and represents 50% of energy use

Today, the processes for making basic goods and infrastructure including steel, cement, aluminum, glass and chemicals require a lot of energy. They also generate emissions that are harder to reduce. These emissions decline through 2050 as industries use more electricity, natural gas, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage.

Key insight: 3

Transportation energy demand rises 30% as a growing middle class increases travel and buys more goods.

Energy demand for personal transportation peaks and then declines before 2030 as fuel efficiency improves and people buy more electric vehicles. However, commercial transportation uses more energy as rising economic activity increases demand for goods and infrastructure.

Key insight: 4

Reaching a Lower 2°C pathway requires innovative solutions and supportive policies

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Lower 2°C scenarios and the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario provide potential pathways for society to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. They highlight the importance of innovation to improve the cost and performance of lower-carbon alternatives, especially for commercial transportation and industry. As some of these technologies are still in early stages, clear and consistent government policies will be crucial to support deployment.

Key insight: 5

Biofuels, hydrogen-based fuels and CCS offer lower-carbon solutions for hard-to-decarbonize sectors

Having a numerous lower-carbon technologies will be critical in the energy transition, with multiple options required to meet differing needs. In aviation, biofuels are expected to be the primary transition fuel. Hydrogen-based ammonia is likely to capture some of the marine transportation market. Low-carbon blue hydrogen – made with carbon capture – will be key in replacing traditional furnace fuel to eliminate carbon from the industrial sector.

Key insight: 6

Oil and natural gas play an important role and investment in new supplies required

The IPCC and IEA scenarios show that no single energy source or technology solution is sufficient to achieve a Lower 2°C pathway. While lower-emission sources play important roles, oil and natural gas remain a significant part of the energy mix for decades, reinforcing the need for continued investment.

We begin creating the Outlook by looking at fundamental drivers including population, living standards, and consumer preferences.

Then we forecast energy demand across 15 sectors and match the demand for energy services with about 20 types of energy, considering how technology, government policies, and other factors may evolve. We forecast oil and natural gas production from key producing countries/regions, and to estimate energy-related CO₂ emissions, we look at historical and projected energy demand and apply an emissions factor for each type.

For a topline overview, download our executive summary and infographic.

Explore our fundamentals

Global energy fundamentals

Energy is essential for human progress. Economic expansion and improving access to energy enable people to lead longer, more productive lives.

Learn more about progress and its relation to energy
Energy demand: Three drivers

Policy. Technology. Consumer preferences. All three affect how the world uses energy. Each driver influences the other and changes over time, with variances by region and political circumstances.

View data through our studies and modeling
Low carbon solutions

Having a suite of lower-carbon technologies for hard-to-decarbonize sectors is important. They have a critical role to play in the energy transition, with multiple options required to meet differing needs.

Learn more about low-carbon solutions
Energy supply

Energy – in all its forms – enables growth and prosperity. As economies grow, as technology advances, as consumers become more environmentally aware, and as government policies adapt, global energy demand will evolve to meet changing needs.

Review the global energy supply mix
Emissions

Providing reliable, affordable energy to support prosperity and improve living standards is coupled with the need to do so in ways that reduce risk to the environment, including climate change.

View the projections for CO2 emissions

How we develop our Outlook

Monitoring policy and technology trends

The Company monitors changes in technology and policy, for example solar panel pricing, battery efficiency, the European Union’s tailpipe emissions regulations, and China’s coming 14th five-year plan.

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